How Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran affects cease-fire efforts in Gaza and Lebanon

After Israel’s first-ever open attack on Iranian soil, Iran is saying that it might not respond in kind if there’s a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon. A senior Biden administration official said efforts will soon resume to end the fighting in Lebanon and Gaza and secure the return of Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. John Yang speaks with Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution for more.
John Yang:
Good evening. I’m John Yang. Tonight, Iran is saying that it might not respond in kind to Israel’s first ever open attack on its soil if there’s a cease fire in Gaza and Lebanon, more than 100 Israeli fighter jets and unmanned drones struck Iranian military targets. Iran state run news agency said four members of its military were killed.
John Yang (voice-over):
The long anticipated retaliatory attack came early Saturday morning. The Israeli Defense Forces said it struck targets where missiles are built and stored their answer to Iran’s missile barrages on Israel in April and earlier this month, those followed the killings of Iranian and Hezbollah leaders, which Iran blamed on Israel.
On state TV, Iran’s ruling regime played down the damage.
Sahar Emami, State TV Anchor (through translator):
Although the country’s integrated air defense system successfully tracked and confronted the act of aggression, limited damage has been caused to some places. The scope of the attack is being investigated.
John Yang (voice-over):
IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari indicated Israeli retaliation was done for now.
Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, IDF Spokesperson (through translator):
We are focused on the targets of the war in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran is the one that continues to push for a wider regional escalation. We will know how to choose additional targets and attack them if necessary.
John Yang (voice-over):
International reaction was swift.
Recep Tayip Erdogan, Turkish President (through translator):
I wish a speedy recovery to our neighbor, Iran and the Iranian government, which was the target of the Israeli aggression last night, the Zionist Israeli government wants to light the fuse on a regional conflict.
Keir Starmer, United Kingdom Prime Minister:
I am clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression. I’m equally clear that we need to avoid further regional escalation and urge all sides to show restraint. Iran should not respond.
John Yang (voice-over):
This afternoon before flying to Pittsburgh for a campaign event, President Biden echoed that call.
Joe Biden, U.S. President:
It looks like they didn’t hit anything on the military targets. My hope is this is the end.
John Yang:
A senior Administration official said efforts will soon resume to end the fighting in Lebanon, secure a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of Israeli hostages still held in Gaza. Suzanne Maloney is director of the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution.
Suzanne, what do you make of this offer from or overture from Iran that they’ll not retaliate if there’s a ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza?
Suzanne Maloney, The Brookings Institution:
Well, I think this is consistent with the rhetoric that we’ve heard from Iran for some time. They’ve tried to posture that they’re actually defending the people of Gaza and the people of Lebanon, and that their hostile activity toward Israel will, in fact, stop if there is a cease fire. I think it’s also a face saving gesture, because they’re unlikely to respond to what was a fairly complex and sophisticated attack by the Israelis yesterday against Iran.
John Yang:
Talk a little more about last night, the attack last night, was Israel able to accomplish its goals while at the same time heeding the international calls for restraint?
Suzanne Maloney:
Well, I think it was a sort of Goldilocks approach on the part of the Israelis. It was big enough to impose some costs, and I think to have some deterrent to impact on Iran’s calculus. But it was not so big as to create inevitable pressures for escalation and Iranian retaliation, which would put the region in a much wider and much more dangerous war. That obviously was the goal of the United States that had been speaking with the Israeli counterparts about the nature of the attack.
There was a lot of discussion about whether nuclear sites would be targeted, whether Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure might be targeted, but instead, they chose to target drone and missile production facilities as well as air defense and radar. And I think that that was a very wise and appropriate choice.
John Yang:
Israel appears to have used the airspace of Jordan and Iraq to get to the targets in Iran. What does that tell us about Iran standing among its Arab neighbors?
Suzanne Maloney:
Well, the region’s reaction has been quite interesting. As you noted, two of Iran’s neighboring states use permitted the Israelis to use their airspace to undertake these attacks. It demonstrates how vulnerable Iran is because of the alignment of many of the rest countries in the rest of the region with Israel.
But of course, there are condemnations for many, many regional states as well, including Saudi Arabia, which I think speaks to the fact that no country in the region really wants to see this situation escalate further than it has.
John Yang:
There’s been so for many years, Israel and Iran sort of fighting by proxy, Iranian sponsored groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis attacking Israel. Have we reached a new phase now where these two countries, these two long time enemies, are going to be attacking each other directly?
Suzanne Maloney:
Yes, I think that’s exactly where we were. As you noted, for about the past decade, there’s been a gray zone war between Iran and Israel, often involving proxies or war in third countries such as Syria. What we’ve seen since April is a willingness on the part of the Iranians to strike directly in an attributable fashion against Israel, and by Israel to respond directly with attacks on Iran — on the Iranian homeland.
I think this is in much more dangerous phase of the war, although the actions of the past 24 hours may create some pause on the part of the Iranians to take the next step of escalation.
John Yang:
Much more dangerous phase. Does this you think take us? Are we step closer? Are we closer to having a broader war in the Middle East?
Suzanne Maloney:
We are absolutely on the precipice of a broader war, and the only thing that will really ensure that we don’t get there is to see a ceasefire in Gaza, a reduction of tensions around the region, and a commitment on the part of Iran and other countries to stop trying to fuel the fire and trying to press their aggression against Israel. I think the likelihood that we get there very quickly, unfortunately, is very low.
John Yang:
Suzanne Maloney, the Brookings Institution. Thank you very much.
Suzanne Maloney:
Thank you.